TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,040 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf154…27e3backed Under47c4,468$2,100 inWon+$2,368.099051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over60c3,929$2,369 inLost-$2,368.953,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under38c2,631$1,000 inWon+$1,631.2252052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c2,602$1,378 inLost-$1,378.399,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over53c1,308$693 inLost-$693.0487750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Over59c1,271$750 inLost-$7501546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Under45c1,000$450 inWon+$55018743.3%81 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under41c400$164 inWon+$2363,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under49c367.35$180 inWon+$187.3536453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under40c190$76 inWon+$1145,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over70c120$84 inLost-$848,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under30c120$36 inWon+$8443246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under46c112.46$51 inWon+$61.284,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over54c92.59$50 inLost-$5017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Under30c88.9$27 inWon+$62.2318957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Over53c64.72$34 inLost-$34.328147.7%134 W · 147 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over55c45.45$25 inLost-$2550351.5%259 W · 244 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Over47c31.91$15 inLost-$158440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over60c31.89$19 inLost-$19.131,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under40c31.89$13 inWon+$19.1350841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…a81bbacked Under53c29.97$16 inWon+$14.091957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked Under49c26$13 inWon+$13.2615253.3%81 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.