TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x050d…2f13

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Lol at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 105.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$999.84
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$906Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$906.31
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+112.8%+$563.83
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$750
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+96.1%+$576.58
Magic vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 117.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$1,040
Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 205.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Magic vs. Clippers: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+89.4%+$447.13
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$750
76ers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$565.79
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$750
Spread: Raptors (-9.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+96.1%+$480.39
Knicks vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+88.7%+$443.4
Heat vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+275.3%+$2,753.43
Rockets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
All 15 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$932Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$932.4
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$807Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$806.71
RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,932Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+117.4%+$2,267.46
SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+300%+$1,500
RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,142Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+125.6%+$2,691.4
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,559Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,559.23
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,558Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,558
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,558Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$605.89
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+53.8%+$538.46
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+33.5%+$334.58
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+72.4%+$724.14
FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,001Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+72.4%+$1,448.91
All 13 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-64.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+207.2%+$2,590.39
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203.1%+$678.04
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,894Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+242.2%+$4,587.19
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$3,355Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+235.3%+$7,894.46
All 4 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+56.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$563.21
Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$450.09
Levante UD vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+132.6%+$1,140
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$235.29
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$240.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First Round Pool D: Netherlands vs. Nicaraguabacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+37.1%+$181.39
First Round Pool A: Canada vs. Colombiabacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+40.8%+$98.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,947Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,947
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,049.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atalanta BC vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$1,408.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Nantes vs. Angers SCO: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,820Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,819.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.