TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,336 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c11,445$5,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,430.273,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Over46c4,199$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.461361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over46c3,000$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.1144655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.915133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf04c…b823backed Under65c2,759$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Over48c2,280$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.4519139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over50c1,740$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.044839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over52c1,098$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick67cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over70c961.81$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.5575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under50c913.24$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.961,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over69c773$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.6317251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under38c771.36$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8919254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over43c700$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39913461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over48c688.65$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.15044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Over48c687.5$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.55046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…ef8bbacked Over61c648.74$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c644.61$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.641,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4052…0014backed Over50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over54c592.67$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6711065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1658068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.78955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under52c470.31$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.291,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over71c464.79$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7918759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20012952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1766844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.865466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over44c258.5$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.520753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Over32c250$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28c4…48e3backed Under11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4b…f7d2backed Under11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over51c235.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2919055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over45c220$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1215236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over69c220$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.23167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over70c213$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.930054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1006435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under58c193.45$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.22556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Under9c191$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.082347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over42c190.19$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1926433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x027b…5587backed Over54c184.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over27c175.69$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2510642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over46c167.61$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2216046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb69f…3c2bbacked Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.856665.2%43 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8517855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…1c79backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8514260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.853455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ed…66f7backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Over66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.523265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over54c146.6$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.917962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.939067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x472c…5ae2backed Over51c140$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Over47c139.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1910246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…c65dbacked Over69c139.86$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.361346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over69c129.58$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1722047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9525352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over65c107.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6922157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over45c106.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.711955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4518958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe91c…5331backed Over49c102.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.141758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.045158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1edf…2392backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503240.6%13 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa18f…073fbacked Over55c92.36$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1029…3161backed Under56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over56c80.51$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.512356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Under42c80.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.42548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over50c75.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.916056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.534269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd162…72aabacked Over69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.466058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Over35c71.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.431926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under31c66.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.389838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb903…9942backed Over57c66.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.331163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under34c63.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over31c59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.719742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c7…4078backed Under42c57.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick52cpaid-65.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf877…77e1backed Over66c56$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.04977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc88c…f67dbacked Over54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc26c…ffddbacked Over36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7700…2d07backed Over37c53.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.95988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.43per pick46cpaid+96.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.510864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.538845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10a…d6c2backed Over28c49.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over53c47.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5639558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x19cf…5636backed Under32c42.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under55c42.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.414642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under29c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.181,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Over47c41.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.214153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.222562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2210648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over62c38.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.913073.1%95 W · 35 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under44c38.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6512064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5f2…2512backed Over65c36.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.762552%13 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under32c34.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under60c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.47550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f0…6a42backed Over36c33.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.