Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10f8a07f67de488f37cca635d05d9b2cf19f00451eb0619fe966c8a9ed5abf2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,218 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 6,649$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 11c | 5,091$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.02 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 12c | 3,886$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.72 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 74c | 2,843$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.09 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 1,880$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 22c | 1,429$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.86 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 26c | 1,119$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.34 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35b…6eb2backed Over | 78c | 873$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 720.23$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…8c4fbacked Over | 76c | 304.68$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…ef8bbacked Over | 70c | 179.53$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…5cb6backed Over | 72c | 162.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 23c | 143.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 75c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 27c | 115.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 78c | 115.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 12c | 110.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 27c | 96.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Over | 75c | 74.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 76c | 73.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Over | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…4be1backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 75c | 27.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Over | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…ab38backed Over | 67c | 26.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…20e7backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.