TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,151 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee0d…57abbacked Under51c117,552$60,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,100.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Over48c45,581$21,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,879.053452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over49c24,988$12,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,145.7575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f6…4535backed Over45c21,898$9,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,904.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.976251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Over49c19,796$9,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c19,237$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,237.623,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4270…e461backed Over49c16,316$7,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,994.84650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over42c12,327$5,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,117.233244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c21…9b8abacked Over49c12,245$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under51c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.994540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3d0…d2f0backed Over49c8,555$4,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,19260%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over48c6,190$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.1734144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d5…157dbacked Over49c4,784$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Under52c3,972$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.542759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4407057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over24c3,000$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.4444655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.845133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over49c2,769$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.9122047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over49c2,481$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.88520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9809048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under52c2,000$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.9935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under52c1,758$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.82142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over48c1,562$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.767254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under54c1,558$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.7456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under52c1,350$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64815742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Under52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under80c588$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4122245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under52c559.87$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.1424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Over20c482.57$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5619139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Over48c468.75$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+58.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Under69c433.26$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.261770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over49c404.2$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9615244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under63c402.61$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over25c400.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.816046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over49c390.44$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.323250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over39c365.15$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1436435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under52c360$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9616850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x140d…a937backed Over43c349.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over49c306.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14422854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Over43c296.42$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.226227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under72c276.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.831844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Under55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7317652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Under75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under61c262.5$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7312832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under62c261$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.075644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1208864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under54c249.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under54c249.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under54c249.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under63c243.48$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.091,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Over48c240.67$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.12441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under52c240$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.212162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over40c239.49$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.810642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under52c230$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.414355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under52c220$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.613957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over16c219.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over48c201$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9633938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under62c195$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.59742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over8c190$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under54c189.59$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2610943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under52c180$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under52c180$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.412858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bd2…7b9dbacked Over47c179$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6676…cc0abacked Over47c174$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over27c168.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.436134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a4…9196backed Over47c165$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b16…40c5backed Over47c165$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under57c161.5$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5112064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over38c160.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1222157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7225659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over11c149.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.931,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.067458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9217…1b00backed Over47c145$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over33c142.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under52c142.13$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2212157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf119…0045backed Over46c140$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under54c137.18$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.619658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over47c120$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.712843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.612259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.611259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.612458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.610360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.612657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.612358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.611563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.613254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd2…ff00backed Over46c116.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over21c112$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5221041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752a…4f43backed Under55c111.4$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…7ca1backed Under55c106.12$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x630f…15aebacked Over46c101.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Over45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.