Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf01c9752f7155db6cdbc5ad9e4f8ca5455236e6324035c5c433839bad7412565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,759 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 11c | 3,000$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.69 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 73c | 2,600$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 26c | 1,250$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.27 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 80c | 687.5$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 437.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 5c | 309.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 276.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 188.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Under | 75c | 133.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Over | 17c | 125.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 25c | 114.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Under | 74c | 83.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 74c | 75.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…884bbacked Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)FC Augsburg won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)FC Augsburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.