Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77ea955208b8f7b72ecb038ee7f5b53a75815066b1aa51131cf04560a21bf6c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,557 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 3,921$2,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 40c | 3,123$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 61c | 2,981$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.58 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked Over | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2f13backed Over | 39c | 2,410$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 36c | 2,016$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 61c | 1,640$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.6 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 39c | 1,572$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.32 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 37c | 926.59$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.33 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…e42cbacked Under | 65c | 869$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 61c | 809.16$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.27 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 28c | 735.39$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 701.77$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.78 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 37c | 554.7$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.24 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 60c | 502.5$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Under | 68c | 260$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…2942backed Over | 38c | 252.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 40c | 251.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 66c | 249.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 65c | 249.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 66c | 249.07$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 244.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Over | 37c | 209.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 34c | 199.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Over | 51c | 195.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 65c | 187.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…94b9backed Under | 54c | 185.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 27c | 184.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 66c | 167.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b0…eb08backed Over | 21c | 142.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 35c | 139.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 37c | 124.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…a734backed Under | 63c | 105.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…8ec8backed Under | 63c | 104.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over | 44c | 90.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 31c | 85.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Over | 40c | 75.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 38c | 65.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 61.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 58.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…6e13backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 61c | 50.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 39c | 45.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…884bbacked Under | 61c | 43.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33cd…bb7bbacked Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 33.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…c560backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 73c | 28.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…650cbacked Over | 37c | 27.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17c6…9a06backed Under | 64c | 27.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 69c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 41c | 24.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.