Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87cdda5b5c90be520b2e6eaa987c86494e611fc8815fd41a84f49ae21e80790b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,320 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 2,734$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 32c | 890.87$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.66 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 63c | 712.29$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.29 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…22dbbacked No | 37c | 689.31$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 39c | 687.24$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.18 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Yes | 70c | 628.89$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.67 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed No | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…cc36backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…4273backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…83dbbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 417.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked No | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 53c | 309.08$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Yes | 39c | 250$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 62c | 240.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 61c | 214.54$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 64c | 204.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Yes | 32c | 194.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 175.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ff…9aaabacked Yes | 61c | 164.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…716bbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 158.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…48e3backed No | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…5d96backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 49c | 89.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked No | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 75.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Yes | 18c | 67.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Yes | 34c | 65.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…afe2backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…e55bbacked Yes | 61c | 56.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 34c | 46.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 39c | 40.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 63c | 39.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…e294backed Yes | 70c | 35.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 38c | 35.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907b…3101backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked No | 63c | 31.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…c560backed No | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed No | 50c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 59c | 23.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…b899backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…84a2backed Yes | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 61c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…b335backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.