Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a03977f5a4eb9124948611e06635cc68520b5ddc3b7f622e75bbb313c9e6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,581 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 4,566$3,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2f13backed Over | 21c | 3,775$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 19c | 2,840$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.6 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 80c | 2,488$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.6 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 21c | 1,250$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 20c | 1,118$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.78 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 80c | 1,004$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Under | 80c | 26.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.