Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f9d19733bfc50838b2e01b8726ec525627590f7e4935beec488d987313331cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Kölnof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, 1. FC Köln
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,369 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 28,784$20,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,726.46 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 63c | 13,500$8,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,505.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 10,943$3,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320.08 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 3,899$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.61 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 2,047$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 1,870$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 51c | 1,855$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.69 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed 1. FC Köln | 61c | 1,634$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…982ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 1,150$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 62c | 556.45$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 32c | 401.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 386.11$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 40c | 341.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 71c | 338$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 324.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed 1. FC Köln | 69c | 293.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 63c | 269.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b0…eb08backed 1. FC Köln | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 231.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 166$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 163.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…021dbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 133.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 28c | 121.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 112.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…727ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed 1. FC Köln | 44c | 98.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked 1. FC Köln | 70c | 71.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…6e13backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…8c15backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 66.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d5bfbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 65.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…95d0backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked 1. FC Köln | 28c | 61.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1. FC Köln | 71c | 60.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 57.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 57.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked 1. FC Köln | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…cf8abacked 1. FC Köln | 70c | 48.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…bbdbbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…9d51backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 34.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…f9a7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…3af6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 64c | 22.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…78febacked 1. FC Köln | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed 1. FC Köln | 71c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed 1. FC Köln | 71c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…6833backed 1. FC Köln | 70c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.