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Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,159 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under41c20,160$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,199.753,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Over57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.932850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under43c8,200$3,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,52656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over64c4,870$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.351675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Over58c3,450$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.911361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1404839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under42c2,625$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.641,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over58c2,351$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.0715847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over58c1,908$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.8410361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under42c1,700$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.975145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc18…2ce9backed Over62c1,597$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.73633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9927726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under49c1,310$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64215540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over60c900$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3604975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under34c778.91$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.992,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Over58c551.72$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.722969%20 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over60c509.18$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.672263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over58c499.81$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.9233340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under43c348.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9737344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c33…e3aebacked Under43c342.72$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Over57c265$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006450%32 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9184…6048backed Over58c255.89$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.354055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4c…2a53backed Over60c251.67$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under43c222.3$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4918746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over59c222.03$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.034542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…127cbacked Under32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e07…a6e7backed Over58c198.14$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under42c195.56$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1320545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.293174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c15…a488backed Over58c146.98$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Under38c120.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.776558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Under43c115.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Over59c115.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.426845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under42c112$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0415453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea8f…62a9backed Under28c108.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under41c108.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.051,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under43c106.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7825850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c9…2bd8backed Over59c105.57$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.171872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Under40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4212832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under40c92.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1421051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2112861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6f…eb72backed Over58c80.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.021392.3%12 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick75cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6514758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Under40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over62c74.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1922157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d12…a4c4backed Over68c66.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.181040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecd6…5f03backed Over61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.57875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over53c65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4510552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd16…07bbbacked Over63c60.1$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.221776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Under38c53.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.763836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over58c51.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.735466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7213066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae28…5d17backed Over61c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1934655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd944…07d5backed Under43c48.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.392785.2%23 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Under36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.122646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under40c40.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9120153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…2037backed Under51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+48.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0406…c5b3backed Over58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Under42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.87962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb47e…8a93backed Over59c36.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ae…2bfebacked Over60c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe10c…e7e2backed Over59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2079…33d8backed Over60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over59c33.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.562441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Over56c25.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over58c24.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1416750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Under43c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d0…f39ebacked Under45c23.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over58c23.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.631,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe105…8a2dbacked Over60c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+59.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc856…0aa5backed Over60c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.611045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.425659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over62c16.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.