TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xea8f…62a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Serie A, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST2646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$35.08
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$59
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$56.1
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$40.6
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$22.17
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$15.32
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$11.75
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$14.8
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+53.8%+$29.38
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$57.4
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+49.3%+$17.24
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+316.7%+$47.5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+37%+$9.25
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20.43
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$21.2
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+35.1%+$17.57
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+92.3%+$24
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.1
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+25%+$7.5
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+49.3%+$7.39
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+72.4%+$10.86
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+178.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+178.6%+$35.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Anadolu Efesbacked Zalgiris Kaunas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.