TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Anadolu Efes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Anadolu Efesof Zalgiris Kaunas, Anadolu Efes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Zalgiris Kaunas70c12,139$8,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,442.4414847.3%70 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Anadolu Efes31c8,225$2,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,712.99850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Anadolu Efes31c6,457$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,466.6622231.5%70 W · 152 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Anadolu Efes38c6,081$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,751.2154251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Zalgiris Kaunas20c5,006$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.64037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Anadolu Efes61c4,123$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.4813650%68 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas4c3,788$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+65.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Zalgiris Kaunas64c3,493$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Zalgiris Kaunas69c2,294$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.868453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Anadolu Efes31c2,228$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.627557.5%158 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Zalgiris Kaunas51c2,153$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.7114542.1%61 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Anadolu Efes50c1,407$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.833834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Anadolu Efes65c1,153$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.6712454%67 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas73c1,027$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Zalgiris Kaunas69c792.95$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.1412040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…1f24backed Zalgiris Kaunas48c707.81$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Anadolu Efes31c699.99$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Zalgiris Kaunas8c670.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6c…baa9backed Zalgiris Kaunas35c410$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.391330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae2…856fbacked Anadolu Efes49c404.61$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b77…11d2backed Anadolu Efes31c387.13$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Anadolu Efes29c345$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.959136.3%33 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Zalgiris Kaunas60c335.05$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Anadolu Efes30c334$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.83345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Zalgiris Kaunas69c330.26$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.882030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Anadolu Efes30c330.03$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.022365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Zalgiris Kaunas55c310$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.98344.6%37 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9b…d007backed Anadolu Efes33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.031070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+47.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Anadolu Efes39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Zalgiris Kaunas59c260$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.811455.3%63 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e5…293bbacked Zalgiris Kaunas68c250$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Anadolu Efes32c225$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1531172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+65.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Zalgiris Kaunas64c218.75$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Anadolu Efes30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1403836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Anadolu Efes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1384143.9%18 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+69%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Zalgiris Kaunas10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Anadolu Efes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1382100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick45cpaid+144.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Anadolu Efes29c185$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02dc…ef17backed Zalgiris Kaunas72c143.92$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.32425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf08…f276backed Zalgiris Kaunas72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001080%8 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Anadolu Efes29c132.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0213548.9%66 W · 69 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Anadolu Efes28c128$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+85.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd466…0706backed Anadolu Efes41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Anadolu Efes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672245.5%10 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+35.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Anadolu Efes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Anadolu Efes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed Anadolu Efes29c93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+111.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Zalgiris Kaunas54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Zalgiris Kaunas55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a1…e6f5backed Anadolu Efes29c87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+43.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Anadolu Efes32c84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Zalgiris Kaunas61c82.84$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.534634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Anadolu Efes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Anadolu Efes32c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.44047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Anadolu Efes34c78.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.09683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick45cpaid+78.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Anadolu Efes31c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.754454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Zalgiris Kaunas25c70.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.613627.8%10 W · 26 L-8.6wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-51.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Anadolu Efes55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.175664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…bdecbacked Zalgiris Kaunas69c63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec1…f195backed Anadolu Efes33c62.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed Anadolu Efes29c61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…4446backed Zalgiris Kaunas70c60.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2949…76bcbacked Zalgiris Kaunas68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.08540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38a0…16e9backed Anadolu Efes33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.451631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x523c…5348backed Zalgiris Kaunas59c43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.37650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Zalgiris Kaunas73c42.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Zalgiris Kaunas51c42.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.593839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38ee…2a4fbacked Zalgiris Kaunas58c41.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b7…7fd0backed Zalgiris Kaunas68c41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Anadolu Efes40c39.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.051127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Anadolu Efes31c38.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.718653.5%46 W · 40 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf6e9…6613backed Zalgiris Kaunas72c38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195630.4%17 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Zalgiris Kaunas68c36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51bd…bc56backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66f7…2894backed Zalgiris Kaunas72c34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1a1…be8bbacked Zalgiris Kaunas68c33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1009…07fabacked Zalgiris Kaunas62c32.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a6…bbd5backed Zalgiris Kaunas68c32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Anadolu Efes38c31.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3912268.9%84 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Zalgiris Kaunas71c31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.01757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a94…31e6backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65be…1c83backed Anadolu Efes41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.651442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Anadolu Efes44c29.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Zalgiris Kaunas55c29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.953542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…d929backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.59650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…d27cbacked Anadolu Efes52c28.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e85…d253backed Zalgiris Kaunas68c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x888b…8f3fbacked Zalgiris Kaunas68c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60c…b395backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe166…edcebacked Zalgiris Kaunas71c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Zalgiris Kaunas67c26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4234344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9b…0bc0backed Zalgiris Kaunas72c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc94d…2b20backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Zalgiris Kaunas69c23.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4531446.2%145 W · 169 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Zalgiris Kaunas71c23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Zalgiris Kaunas69c22.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4210945.9%50 W · 59 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7690…92cbbacked Zalgiris Kaunas71c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.