Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d9b33086942696f93c20c032ca7fde9defc5f89895f9392b40ebd33d6c3be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 5,385$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 63c | 2,100$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.63 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,601$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.05 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 37c | 1,484$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.48 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d670backed No | 11c | 1,166$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 62c | 820.02$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.45 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 42c | 607$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.13 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…7b07backed No | 10c | 599.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…8b9abacked Yes | 62c | 567$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 57c | 550$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 37c | 467.43$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 47c | 384.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.83 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 41c | 366$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 39c | 262.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 62c | 235$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Yes | 61c | 199.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Yes | 56c | 198.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 33c | 149.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 39c | 129.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Yes | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 63c | 120.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Yes | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Yes | 66c | 100.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ceb…be53backed Yes | 63c | 90.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 57c | 89.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a98…d17cbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 63c | 71.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 38c | 67.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Yes | 61c | 52.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Yes | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 33c | 45.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked No | 68c | 44.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 49c | 43.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 70c | 42.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 37c | 35.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1864…3904backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…e36bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…b190backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 47c | 27.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Yes | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Yes | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…683fbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…f7f7backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 57c | 23.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Yes | 61c | 22.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…0ca1backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.