Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65f336815184253af45bf693e0a760bd9eafb7c9ac64efbcc3b8fac6182aa8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 29c | 2,089$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 23c | 1,814$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.36 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 1,571$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,499$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 18c | 1,400$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 1,282$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.84 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 688.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 23c | 652.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 79c | 394.93$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 79c | 370.26$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 77c | 226$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 200.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 21c | 148$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over | 78c | 113.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8636…d3c7backed Over | 78c | 81.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Under | 22c | 79.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 79c | 63.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…033dbacked Over | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 78c | 34.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Over | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…e36bbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…7b9dbacked Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed Over | 78c | 24.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Over | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…ddbcbacked Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…cdccbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.