Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5838d980eb9513fe70f50f74dcac698358a7db88a35291eeaa4276fbc60fea7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Under | 54c | 7,340$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 4,917$2,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 42c | 2,510$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 64c | 1,266$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…e0a7backed Under | 64c | 937.5$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 714.58$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 60c | 674.49$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 602.45$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Over | 64c | 569.41$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.41 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 39c | 454.98$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.98 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Under | 63c | 399.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 63c | 377.37$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Over | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 55c | 266.66$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 22c | 223.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 37c | 215$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 193.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 51c | 175.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…67a5backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…9e51backed Under | 35c | 150.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 61c | 137.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…b024backed Over | 41c | 115.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 104$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 103.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…127cbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…6373backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 45c | 85.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 56c | 73.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 30c | 64.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 41c | 51.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 61c | 50.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…6a04backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Over | 42c | 47.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…b339backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 41c | 32.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…5b73backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…86d9backed Over | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…33d8backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…7000backed Under | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 60c | 23.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Under | 64c | 22.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Under | 62c | 21.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.