NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f0e3878778d25260446d5831d057576a044c493e33f5914ce166f42ca9154a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 4,341$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.27 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Over | 46c | 3,478$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.26 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 48c | 3,420$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.39 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 52c | 2,874$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.65 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.33 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 55c | 2,060$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 49c | 2,044$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.2 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 17c | 2,040$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.07 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 1,650$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.51 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b5…3f5ebacked Under | 54c | 1,557$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2f13backed Under | 56c | 1,339$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 48c | 1,333$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.15 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 957.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Under | 42c | 915.52$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.12 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 56c | 894.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 821.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.92 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 62c | 704.45$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.32 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 697.37$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.61 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 675.02$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 628.83$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 52c | 439.77$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.68 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 379.76$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 372.14$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 36%62 W · 110 L | -19.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 61c | 355$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.55 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3770…88a6backed Under | 41c | 349.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 56c | 332.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.91 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.18 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…c5f1backed Over | 71c | 271.83$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 22c | 251.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…600dbacked Under | 10c | 247.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 55c | 242.78$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 228$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4949…478ebacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 189.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 49c | 178$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…2c69backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 55c | 90.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 86.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…d6a8backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 67c | 67.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 46c | 43.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…ec41backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 68c | 32.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Under | 52c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 48c | 22.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…be36backed Under | 56c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.