NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff62e8c4f9624a2ffd6059bc74412506092b09287f58e5c7d86fcc52a4f642a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 3,247$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.51 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 56c | 1,832$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.61 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,029$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Under | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 850.91$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.91 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 837.08$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 57c | 820.44$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.79 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 55c | 750.91$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.91 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 57c | 620.35$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.75 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 585.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 43c | 581.51$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.23 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 251.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Under | 45c | 233.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 233.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Under | 43c | 220.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 219.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 55c | 181.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 75c | 162.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 103.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 75c | 90.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 58c | 73.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 18c | 72.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…185bbacked Over | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 292 | 47.9%140 W · 152 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 32c | 50.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Over | 60c | 50.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 37c | 48.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…c4d9backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Over | 56c | 37.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 75c | 33.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Under | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 45c | 30.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Under | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.