TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$435,680
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$444,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,680 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder51c102,834$52,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,217.342,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Thunder51c87,669$44,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,957.8487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Thunder52c85,000$44,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,80040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Lakers49c80,000$39,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,20060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers49c59,918$29,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,119.094,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers48c48,916$23,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,479.671,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Lakers50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Lakers49c18,214$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Lakers49c16,899$8,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,280.3117554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Lakers50c14,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0007638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lakers49c10,691$5,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,236.431,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cf…7d64backed Lakers48c10,315$4,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9512045%9 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers49c10,153$4,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,974.761,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Lakers48c9,804$4,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,705.6877348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder47c9,551$4,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,032.898,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Lakers48c8,328$3,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.4425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Lakers49c8,163$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00024450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4801…61a8backed Lakers48c8,070$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Lakers51c8,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,08013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder51c6,300$3,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,086.9658449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Thunder51c6,044$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.7415549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder51c5,882$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.351,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Thunder52c5,774$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.3720849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df5…b0ffbacked Lakers48c5,417$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder49c5,404$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7643,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Thunder52c5,081$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.0987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Thunder53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Thunder51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9710553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Lakers48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.571,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Thunder50c3,800$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Lakers49c3,331$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.1926544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers48c3,005$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Lakers48c2,955$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.3558347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3502…7955backed Thunder52c2,800$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder51c2,625$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.29,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Thunder52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20012341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder51c2,232$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.493,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Lakers49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00047856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Thunder50c1,951$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.7165750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Thunder52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0843352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Thunder48c1,896$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.261,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Lakers52c1,771$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.923154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder53c1,700$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.3789050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4949…478ebacked Lakers48c1,649$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.683548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Lakers49c1,643$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.581,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Thunder51c1,633$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.2864651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Lakers48c1,606$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.830446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Lakers49c1,551$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76031644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0865…3dffbacked Lakers55c1,551$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.583751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lakers49c1,406$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.942,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb740…582dbacked Lakers50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf9…b6d3backed Lakers49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Thunder53c965.45$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.3850653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Lakers47c806.48$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.041,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers48c783.1$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.724,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lakers47c752.38$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.621,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Lakers51c721$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.088043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ff…38f5backed Thunder52c621.79$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.46944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Thunder51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29449345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1779…eef2backed Lakers33c599.96$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9910936.7%40 W · 69 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ee…a073backed Thunder69c581.63$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.633661.1%22 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8590…07adbacked Thunder52c575$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2765945.8%27 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder47c551.05$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.534,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder49c508.93$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.283,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Lakers49c505.05$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.4741947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5858…dc6bbacked Lakers49c450$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Thunder52c418.68$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.3838453.4%205 W · 179 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Lakers49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020552.2%107 W · 98 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Lakers51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20418446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Lakers50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20051451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed Thunder60c341.11$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1379346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Lakers49c326.53$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16023847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Lakers49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Thunder48c293.27$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.833,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder50c275.98$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Lakers48c236.51$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5225951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder52c227$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9691148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Thunder51c223.12$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5616552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Lakers48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Thunder49c205.47$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7959347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Lakers49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48c8…72a4backed Lakers51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029443.6%41 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Lakers50c199.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder52c195$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.678652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Lakers48c192.35$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.333250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Thunder52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3129046.9%136 W · 154 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c61…4fa6backed Thunder52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.317057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6d…c17fbacked Thunder52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.314100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde19…3a14backed Thunder52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Thunder52c191.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0814450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Thunder53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6811157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d89…d5a6backed Thunder53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Thunder54c183.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.331250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Lakers56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10081845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Thunder53c178$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2841048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Lakers49c162$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.381,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.