NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd77929408ea5acde2f9bbb1d9cf8c0cca75a252f8ff302b9fb55b3ceea946e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 36c | 2,671$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.5 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,547$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Over | 54c | 1,852$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.91 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 1,764$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.61 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 42c | 1,577$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.36 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed Over | 66c | 1,328$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.44 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 998.99$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.96 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 662.94$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 31c | 646.96$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.43 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Over | 68c | 590.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.68 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 570.21$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Over | 66c | 460$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…effebacked Over | 55c | 440$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Over | 66c | 426.27$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.93 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Over | 60c | 373.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 41c | 296.61$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 48c | 288.23$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 268.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 253.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 50c | 243.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Over | 61c | 213.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…8083backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 53c | 190.4$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…b88cbacked Under | 42c | 188.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 43c | 116.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Over | 64c | 100.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 184 | 56%103 W · 81 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 93.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…d308backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Under | 36c | 83.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Under | 34c | 82.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 52c | 75.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 62.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 58c | 56.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…dcbfbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 57c | 52.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 43c | 47.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Under | 48c | 41.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 34.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 59c | 33.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…d6a8backed Over | 60c | 33.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Under | 39c | 30.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 61c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 62c | 29.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 58c | 28.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Under | 48c | 26.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…2489backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 59c | 23.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Over | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…c920backed Over | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…c6dabacked Over | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.