NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead86668dbf9c81df8e9d034f20da9adfbb20f798cd6f2c1f06de3d4be0a3c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Lakers | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Lakers | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Thunder | 59c | 177.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Thunder | 63c | 174.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Lakers | 38c | 104.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 59c | 83.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Thunder | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…08fbbacked Thunder | 64c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…7941backed Thunder | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d56backed Lakers | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…11fabacked Lakers | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…ceadbacked Lakers | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…b444backed Lakers | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…654fbacked Lakers | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6831…08b7backed Thunder | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…ab1cbacked Lakers | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…9c54backed Lakers | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…0454backed Thunder | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcb…5ee0backed Thunder | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…8bf3backed Thunder | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…ee20backed Thunder | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…47e0backed Thunder | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad1…b717backed Thunder | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…d26ebacked Thunder | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…48a0backed Thunder | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf854…3d75backed Thunder | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e68ebacked Thunder | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…5ff4backed Thunder | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…a9fcbacked Thunder | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…6e74backed Thunder | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…3724backed Thunder | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.