NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2407918f2605dc88a6f31d6a240dc11e7e788d3d0b77c6e662fb06c032ae47c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 1,921$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 58c | 1,674$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.28 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 43c | 1,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 57c | 1,396$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.49 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 631.46$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 59c | 620.36$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.35 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 527.87$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Under | 41c | 239.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Over | 60c | 140.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 135.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 116.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 55c | 111.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 45c | 111.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 47c | 105.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 51c | 93.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 80.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 60c | 74.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Under | 43c | 65.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Under | 42c | 62.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…807fbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Under | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ce…ac8dbacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 59c | 42.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Under | 51c | 38.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 39c | 33.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Under | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Over | 57c | 30.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 30.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a42…34d8backed Under | 43c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.