NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986a989bb12b954e3c6479be6c67a0b71a2f734d213082111c77cf0dd63b0fba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 42,931$21,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,436.38 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Under | 50c | 22,366$11,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,183 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…fe50backed Over | 51c | 3,770$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.63 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 3,270$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.82 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 2,783$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 47c | 1,574$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…e04fbacked Under | 47c | 1,022$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.51 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 47c | 642.21$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 578.46$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.27 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Under | 51c | 505.05$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.58 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…bd2abacked Under | 49c | 340$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 210.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Over | 52c | 209.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 26c | 206.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Over | 52c | 106.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 49c | 102.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…f879backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 90.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Over | 51c | 89.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Over | 51c | 61.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 57.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 50.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Under | 50c | 48.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 51c | 45.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 50c | 42.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…3483backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 49c | 34.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 48c | 33.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 31.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…c75fbacked Over | 53c | 30.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.