NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21de2472c3d14ab4761258877cfadc87e50b27cfc274856cbbde0b5dd2fa4f9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder | 51c | 11,338$5,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,503.85 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Lakers | 52c | 7,661$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Lakers | 49c | 5,437$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Thunder | 47c | 4,681$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.56 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Lakers | 45c | 2,955$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.7 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…61a8backed Lakers | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 49c | 2,483$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.28 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Thunder | 55c | 2,270$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.64 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…2c81backed Lakers | 47c | 2,071$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 55c | 1,990$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.41 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…dff4backed Thunder | 53c | 1,933$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…35efbacked Thunder | 56c | 1,788$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Lakers | 48c | 1,783$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.62 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Thunder | 51c | 1,718$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.57 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 46c | 1,465$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 44c | 1,245$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lakers | 45c | 944.44$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 54c | 936.32$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Lakers | 46c | 818$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.23 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 54c | 601.16$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.27 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Thunder | 51c | 593.14$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.83 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder | 54c | 567.16$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.73 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Thunder | 49c | 550$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Lakers | 49c | 512.24$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…effebacked Thunder | 53c | 440$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Lakers | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Lakers | 45c | 409.7$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.37 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lakers | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Thunder | 53c | 399.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 52c | 390.2$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers | 48c | 323.92$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Lakers | 48c | 304.08$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.96 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…c195backed Thunder | 51c | 294.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lakers | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder | 67c | 207$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Lakers | 45c | 167.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…57f0backed Lakers | 50c | 167.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Thunder | 56c | 162$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Lakers | 45c | 152.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 184 | 56%103 W · 81 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Lakers | 49c | 129.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Thunder | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Thunder | 56c | 117.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Lakers | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Thunder | 55c | 112.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Lakers | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Lakers | 50c | 111.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 50c | 103.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Thunder | 49c | 93.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Thunder | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Lakers | 50c | 78.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Thunder | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Thunder | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Lakers | 56c | 60.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Lakers | 45c | 58.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 50c | 55.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Thunder | 54c | 55.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Thunder | 55c | 54.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…76ebbacked Lakers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…5f6cbacked Thunder | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Lakers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Lakers | 56c | 49.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…ec75backed Thunder | 56c | 41.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Lakers | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…6cadbacked Thunder | 55c | 40.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…5631backed Lakers | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Lakers | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Thunder | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…4e45backed Lakers | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Lakers | 49c | 23.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Lakers | 51c | 23.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lakers | 44c | 22.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Lakers | 50c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Thunder | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.