TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$493,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$514,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cc6…9df6backed Yes44c99,393$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,0001526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No71c41,989$30,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,984.23,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No60c34,326$20,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,820.769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No60c32,558$19,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,940.864854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No60c29,971$18,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,882.663743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No59c18,888$11,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,744.083063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed No59c16,847$9,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,907.461338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes10c15,087$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.7416045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No59c14,927$8,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,057.684740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No59c13,858$8,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,706.081,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes41c13,190$5,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,393.5233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No73c11,492$8,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.8275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Yes43c10,408$4,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4241258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.63855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No58c9,907$5,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,141.0111354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed No59c9,309$5,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,816.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc16d…39a2backed Yes41c8,596$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No56c8,394$4,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,716.11,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Yes41c7,777$3,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,188.571650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Yes10c7,544$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.366550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Yes40c5,053$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed No59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0501145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No59c4,449$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,824.0638748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Yes41c3,813$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5581361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x546c…4d99backed Yes41c3,671$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes18c3,585$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.528241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Yes42c3,492$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.711618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed No59c3,381$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.362638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No54c3,000$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.092,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No60c2,905$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.032948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes41c2,806$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.4917652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No59c2,539$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.1334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Yes38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes16c2,314$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No59c2,280$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.2162452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Yes40c2,100$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.961241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Yes41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8201546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed No59c1,993$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.053268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed No59c1,993$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes10c1,993$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0716046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa79…f645backed Yes38c1,955$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes34c1,885$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.528420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f4f…069ebacked No60c1,870$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e78…3a8ebacked Yes40c1,862$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes42c1,786$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e83…4bd3backed No59c1,502$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.69785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+56.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b49…69c1backed Yes30c1,339$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.27639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70af…26fdbacked Yes41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes42c1,203$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.0815829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes26c1,062$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9340744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes18c1,050$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No60c1,005$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.173145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39022747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e85…443ebacked No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4503467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4102437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4109549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…c3d8backed No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes18c993.34$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec2…08afbacked Yes41c990.93$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.282250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Yes42c902.38$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3792934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No61c859.93$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.3756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…ec7ebacked Yes9c839.44$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.231020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes40c803.59$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf439…bf9cbacked Yes42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3363647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3365425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Yes40c756.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Yes10c754.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.442236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a35…5e52backed Yes20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed No60c750$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes18c740$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.822332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No57c731.3$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.759459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes41c709.76$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29134547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes39c674.53$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.316936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes41c610$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.17057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Yes41c609.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes41c609.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb3c…a938backed Yes40c600$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb0…4488backed Yes40c586.95$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23de…05c1backed Yes33c576.58$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No59c534.81$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.3616045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…8c81backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No59c521.02$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.1878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2109…55bfbacked No63c506$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.222871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+37.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked No61c504.83$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.892470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked No60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21049647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fd…db80backed Yes41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes41c464$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.242962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No57c449.91$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6455058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.