TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes28c20,110$5,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,681.9269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed No72c13,773$9,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,856.447950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No71c12,074$8,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.584854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes28c9,375$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes28c5,784$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.861,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed No72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes27c4,352$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.033,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Yes26c4,275$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1203429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No71c2,347$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.7662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6db…fcfcbacked No72c2,100$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5426…bc07backed Yes28c2,092$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed Yes1c1,980$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89145.1%41 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes28c1,978$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.5675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes14c1,699$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.562,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes29c1,430$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes26c1,294$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.578420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa83…4965backed Yes25c1,190$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes25c1,040$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.422332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes26c986$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3649143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes27c864.55$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.4311354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes15c842.08$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.31,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No71c841$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.896167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No72c781.67$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.872955.2%16 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes21c714.29$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes29c706.9$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No72c587$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.367758.4%45 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb0…4488backed Yes27c501.17$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No71c499.66$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.916256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes24c432.5$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.321,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dce…b663backed No72c344$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.321770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Yes28c341.06$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.531145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes21c333.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3324541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes28c286$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0834342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes25c260$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6515540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x819f…70bcbacked Yes28c244.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.62536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes29c243.83$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.715038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x330b…9a52backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes29c199.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5724322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes6c199.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.286936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes29c160$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.410942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cd…e951backed No72c138$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.641764.7%11 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick74cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes28c137.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4719446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes29c134.48$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes28c100.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5656…0b58backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275836.2%21 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf286…f616backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4e…6e96backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294671.7%33 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes26c98.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.522231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Yes28c90.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.461040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Yes30c86.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Yes29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes21c84.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4628822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2f…c5d0backed No72c83.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.332050%10 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes29c83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.841,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes13c79.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.498665.1%56 W · 30 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Yes29c79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.911833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe8c…664cbacked Yes26c75.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes26c75.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.515442.6%23 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes27c73.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4237344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes29c68.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.819252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090b…2f01backed Yes29c65.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes26c65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.98541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…9ac1backed Yes24c62.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes29c62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9833945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes28c61.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed9d…444abacked No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes25c58.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.640744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…b4fbbacked Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes25c56.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes28c54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1216343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes25c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e9…8c29backed Yes27c51.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145543.6%24 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3b…6583backed Yes26c46.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.065563.6%35 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes25c46.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6114642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes28c41.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5425855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a2…e49cbacked Yes26c39.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed No75c36.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.953540%14 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes28c36.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1422047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed No75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331850%9 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36c8…2925backed No72c26.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.39560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No74c21.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed21…aa05backed No72c19.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed No75c18.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.662755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked No71c15.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4610051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75be…9a9ebacked No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e3…4bd5backed No71c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.353770.3%26 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.