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Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Yes59c34,185$20,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,161.6275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked No34c9,764$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304.733748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed No68c8,261$5,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,617.481942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No29c7,812$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.122,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked No44c5,500$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No67c4,550$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.1838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No18c3,418$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.321,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes59c3,160$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.6922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes33c2,994$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.2311354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c9…b988backed No69c2,174$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.06771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes33c2,151$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.159854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No38c2,108$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…0691backed Yes31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3802356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed No69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.981241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No69c1,863$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.8562452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No43c1,737$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.0449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed No41c1,019$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.463050%15 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes31c1,015$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.4922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Yes60c1,015$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.0113129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed No69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6901450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed No67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6709549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes31c967$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.238420.2%17 W · 67 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed No33c909.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No30c678.77$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.9640744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes48c646.79$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.1911762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes31c563.5$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.8256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…8e46backed No68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed No42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed No69c384.06$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2658959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No21c375.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1124541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x760b…6dc8backed No42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes58c333.83$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.581,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No44c321.9$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1433737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfda5…966cbacked Yes32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+170.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed No31c310$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.115829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked No36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20116045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed No71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed Yes77c258.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked No39c254.08$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.096439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c93…77bcbacked No69c231.16$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed No27c223.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.586936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes31c200.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Yes30c179.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12611543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.678532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2917547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.528246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed No35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x766c…fd5bbacked No35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf660…87e8backed No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked No71c141.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005560%33 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed No69c140$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.69173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes31c135$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.116343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No36c122.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.622060%12 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes30c122.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.665038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed Yes32c110$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2810262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No68c106.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.111,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3b…6583backed No55c104$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.125563.6%35 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c9f…b8cebacked No69c104$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.952045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819f…70bcbacked Yes31c102.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.772536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No67c102$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No43c101.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6123842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes30c101.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.651,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4313851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes31c96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.244837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked No70c94.41$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.094463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed No35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No70c85.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607268.1%49 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes31c83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes32c82.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3825855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes65c82.17$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d59…811bbacked No32c79.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd265…a7ecbacked No33c76.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.012245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked No71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x216b…8528backed No51c70.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363743.2%16 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-26.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x484b…184cbacked No70c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x330b…9a52backed Yes31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No27c69.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5711644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed No42c65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.33540%14 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeff2…b6ecbacked Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dda…e7a7backed Yes31c62.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+90.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f0…ad99backed No48c62.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.151376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+64.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed No30c62.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5910943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes32c61.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e49…fb01backed Yes69c61.62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes34c60.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes31c60.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5348146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes43c58.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.293,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes72c57.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.141963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0129…52cdbacked Yes32c57.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes33c53.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.085145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes32c53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.053959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.