TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$171,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3333…15bdbacked Over76c59,509$45,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,290.481376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under24c39,174$9,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,431.21,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over80c14,477$11,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950.892,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb328…4df1backed Under26c5,800$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Under25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under25c3,100$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.951,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over74c2,024$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.3313461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over67c1,935$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.568068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under24c1,500$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under24c1,418$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.2714157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Over75c1,335$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.581361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over73c1,200$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3245068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over75c1,065$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.2510361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under24c1,042$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.089459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked Under3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30300%0 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over80c1,000$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2480…c148backed Under3c900$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Under17c899.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under23c850.22$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.053,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2969…6d76backed Under14c735.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.761010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc35b…6eb2backed Over75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Under26c444.35$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.538143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under25c400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9831145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under24c350$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…7aaabacked Under26c349.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under25c339.98$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over74c337.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8418759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over75c258.71$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.683174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under21c203.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.941,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5217055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Under26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Under26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed Over73c189.97$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2911556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under25c173$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under25c150.02$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2463645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3624258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3a…265ebacked Over79c146.94$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.351861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under24c135$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.422854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over75c133.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.45466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa21f…adddbacked Over75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.333070%21 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under24c115$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.614355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under24c112$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8815453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3de…3842backed Under27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under19c108.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7321540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1fc…dc1cbacked Over74c101.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.35580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Over75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fdb…8417backed Under13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Over74c99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Under26c99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.741435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef96…54dfbacked Over74c94.23$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b79…4f89backed Over74c94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under24c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.612356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under24c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.612858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Over65c83$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.054452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1dc4…3479backed Over74c82$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under24c75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under25c69.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7621051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.674269%29 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6720957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ae…106cbacked Under26c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.293688.9%32 W · 4 L+8.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+31.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xecd6…5f03backed Over66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.413859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.413254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over72c59.85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0522562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d1…44d8backed Under27c55.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b54…97b8backed Under35c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.59173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Under24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed Over65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.52185.7%18 W · 3 L+6.7wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+60.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6aa…3746backed Under26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135836.2%21 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Under27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Under25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1048146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf55…92a2backed Over75c28.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.15540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf17a…e44dbacked Over72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3af…2c0abacked Over74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.032785.2%23 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1179…ab20backed Over74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.032060%12 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c13…1a68backed Over74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over75c26.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.666936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57e8…9a6fbacked Over74c24.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over77c23.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4718353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e9…736dbacked Over74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.272564%16 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db1…d726backed Over75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8577…199abacked Over72c17.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+120.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over72c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.761,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Over73c14.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0211281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.