Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65cb5801fdd30420031b2c40426cdf5118bf76c8f6f347b2ec7443f678a3fa93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 2,105$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 1,510$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Yes | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed No | 57c | 877.61$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.37 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Yes | 46c | 869.86$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 40c | 805$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.28 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 39c | 501.8$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.1 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Yes | 61c | 495.08$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 60c | 386.54$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked No | 41c | 363.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…cc08backed No | 53c | 324.04$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 51c | 259.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed No | 41c | 253$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…caabbacked No | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 217.9$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…54cbbacked No | 48c | 208.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…b973backed Yes | 53c | 192.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 51c | 190$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 60c | 183.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…0060backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…6bcfbacked Yes | 45c | 168.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 61c | 164.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 64c | 131.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…5310backed Yes | 21c | 96.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…9d8fbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…ab7fbacked Yes | 63c | 76.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 56c | 76.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 28c | 72.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…472ebacked No | 40c | 69.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca8…d137backed No | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed No | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…3b3ebacked Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 77c | 58.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed No | 39c | 50.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 61c | 47.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6940…127cbacked No | 41c | 37.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 69c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb754…5964backed No | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…f15bbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.