TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,786

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,713 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1725…4b59backed Under49c22,260$10,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,352.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd596…befbbacked Over51c13,957$7,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,118.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c13,397$6,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,992.283,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Over53c10,393$5,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,508.234650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Under46c9,832$4,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,348.358037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c8,000$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,239.9233244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over54c7,014$3,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.728752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over54c5,556$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.233953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Under48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e75…5f3abacked Over51c4,488$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,293.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Under46c4,356$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over53c4,035$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.861833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under47c3,723$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.1738748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Over52c3,000$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Over52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b2…fb61backed Under47c2,987$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e02…a820backed Over51c2,775$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c2,756$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.51,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under47c2,728$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.6110553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Over55c2,222$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2222650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.914647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Under49c2,008$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.83683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+75%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Over53c1,883$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Over55c1,650$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under46c1,500$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.9927726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over52c1,412$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.399854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over52c1,204$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.0156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over52c1,200$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.955068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Under45c1,157$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5858…dc6bbacked Over48c1,048$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.8840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044a…f114backed Over52c1,030$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Over55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Over55c994.04$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.726768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under46c971.87$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5261,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over52c960$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.213461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over53c943.55$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.083847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over54c905.08$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.741566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over38c838.75$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.912,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under64c822.34$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.863956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Over55c733.37$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.952934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed Over62c655.87$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.521861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over48c555.8$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Under50c482.26$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over50c480$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under46c447.01$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9735856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Under48c385.2$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.32339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Over62c350$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2179250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under45c350$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.520545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over53c322.64$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17124132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over53c320.77$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.012536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Under48c310$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1593560%21 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Under47c300$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Over49c243.02$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.54452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under47c228$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.398246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Under48c207.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.322751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…2e45backed Under49c205$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.052458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over52c199.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9917055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x117a…a264backed Over61c196.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick68cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f6…8cc7backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over53c182.46$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.710642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c8a…398ebacked Over55c180.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Over53c178.75$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.742941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Over58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd35…17debacked Over63c170$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over55c166$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6213139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ce…5310backed Over71c165.12$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Under48c163.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.83154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc98c…6596backed Over55c145.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over33c139.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8310552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa55f…a377backed Under49c130.3$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Over54c125.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcff1…f8debacked Over53c125.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under48c114.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7914355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdec…7ad6backed Over53c111.72$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over55c109.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3837344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under47c106$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2212832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x849f…fb0bbacked Over53c101.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4523…0be0backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Over68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee43…ae9dbacked Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b5f…5e78backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535543.6%24 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0def…0674backed Over62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+473.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8b…51f7backed Over54c96.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e8…9a6fbacked Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18b…876dbacked Under75c93.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7700…2d07backed Under43c93.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.02988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.43per pick46cpaid+96.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3590…68f1backed Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc1…3512backed Under48c90.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4730…cdb1backed Under48c90.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.812858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.