Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437085a668408cc7b59d8ee279a326e529051280bd5e4efdfb33c84aac28e5ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 32c | 4,382$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.21 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 35c | 4,288$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 3,478$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 67c | 2,611$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.62 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 34c | 2,453$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.02 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,825$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 1,223$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 33c | 1,176$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 66c | 900$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 32c | 650$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 69c | 588.88$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 442.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Under | 68c | 407.93$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 33c | 364.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Under | 61c | 350$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 34c | 341$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 66c | 296$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 40c | 210.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…0674backed Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +473.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 32c | 179.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a26…0498backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 48c | 167.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 68c | 165.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 67c | 127$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 40c | 126.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 32c | 111.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Over | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 41c | 80.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 66c | 78.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 70c | 68.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 38c | 62.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Over | 32c | 57.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 35c | 57.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…3d19backed Under | 68c | 56.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 65c | 45.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…b973backed Under | 73c | 45.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 39.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…2d07backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.43per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 66c | 35.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Over | 31c | 34.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 33.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Under | 69c | 32.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9523…a6b9backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc763…0534backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 70c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Under | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.