Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67e04ef0b4a12d9dc1a204f51ec7f7604acd543ecff951540c8b963ee6fecff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,441 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 3,322$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 27c | 2,800$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.71 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 31c | 2,763$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.73 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 69c | 2,755$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.95 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2f13backed Over | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 61c | 965.61$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 73c | 857.74$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.15 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 73c | 450.97$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.21 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 285.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Under | 25c | 198.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 68c | 158$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 70c | 86.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 70c | 74.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 40c | 74.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 54c | 67.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 29c | 65.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Under | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 72c | 51.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 20c | 51.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52aa…e5dabacked Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…abfbbacked Under | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 42.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Under | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 71c | 33.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 67c | 19.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.