Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3fb5a29044ea106fd8afea7e632fe321ea227c89568cc84f7be24e1d9c00d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,631 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 5,080$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 55c | 2,045$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.45 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb31…3bf2backed Yes | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed No | 43c | 795.35$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 746.43$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 42c | 514.3$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.67 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 56c | 426.02$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.45 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 40c | 364.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…8320backed Yes | 59c | 310.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 42c | 220.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 216.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 40c | 206.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 41c | 205.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 57c | 174.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed Yes | 59c | 171.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Yes | 75c | 160.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked No | 44c | 130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…af03backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…268cbacked Yes | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…18dfbacked Yes | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Yes | 60c | 83.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ff…9aaabacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…afe2backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked No | 43c | 67.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…0ef8backed Yes | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed No | 47c | 65.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 57c | 64.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 43c | 64.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…37fabacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Yes | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…45c2backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 44c | 35.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…f93bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Yes | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa060…0747backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 28.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…662ebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Yes | 59c | 24.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 46c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 43c | 23.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 58c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…9a7fbacked Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.