Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfb197672aa19519999219c2c541978406fe8c6b6e59f1823d5e93622faf1217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,930 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 5,200$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.69 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 4,227$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 80c | 3,200$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 79c | 1,925$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.48 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 78c | 1,006$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.41 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 22c | 732.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…7017backed Over | 74c | 608.7$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 79c | 594.97$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 28c | 354.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 21c | 260.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Over | 78c | 190.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…addabacked Over | 78c | 179.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Over | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7657backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…b917backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 70c | 118.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 12c | 117.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 24c | 117.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 70c | 110.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 68c | 110.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 69c | 110.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 33c | 69.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 22c | 65.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 66c | 63.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Under | 25c | 56.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 75c | 53.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 30c | 49.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Over | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 66c | 39.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 76c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…fedbbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.