Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef994dd7253405ba7b13123443c6eb8fb5c1c66862d58a3896df32d80aa9374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,395 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,215$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 13c | 1,250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.74 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 12c | 823.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 442.3$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.41 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Over | 80c | 185$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 59c | 174.07$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…d621backed Under | 46c | 75.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 33c | 70.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 67c | 62.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 57.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 22c | 48.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…5cccbacked Under | 72c | 28.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.