TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool D: Netherlands vs. Nicaragua

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Netherlandsof Netherlands, Nicaragua
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Nicaragua32c2,495$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8092227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x120d…d991backed Netherlands73c1,851$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd844…da79backed Netherlands78c1,716$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.94560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nicaragua32c1,625$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.214724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Netherlands67c1,480$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.9610930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nicaragua28c1,049$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0646547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Netherlands55c930.11$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.3212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Netherlands72c847.67$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.5296133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4342…5797backed Netherlands71c843.55$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.558960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Netherlands71c765$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1620548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nicaragua27c746.02$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.432231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Netherlands73c669.95$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Netherlands52c651.91$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.382,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Nicaragua26c570.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.918032.5%26 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x859c…38e4backed Nicaragua31c483.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Netherlands23c478.24$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.15128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Nicaragua37c452.4$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.956653%35 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7906…1432backed Netherlands72c444.54$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.471172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nicaragua51c417.27$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3655541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Netherlands70c411.5$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12544745.6%204 W · 243 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Netherlands66c404$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.365248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe977…700fbacked Nicaragua5c384.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick16cpaid+207%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Nicaragua30c380.59$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.183250%16 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcca9…af95backed Nicaragua5c379.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29e…3bccbacked Nicaragua3c366.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nicaragua21c365.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.486,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Nicaragua13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686e…3415backed Nicaragua26c268.93$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Netherlands27c259.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9685235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Netherlands77c259.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3734264.3%220 W · 122 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Nicaragua30c251.26$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.388247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Netherlands69c246.87$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.537243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x948d…1a11backed Nicaragua5c225.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Netherlands68c203.4$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.871,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Nicaragua31c201.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.673321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nicaragua30c168.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.761,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Nicaragua23c167.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.461947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Nicaragua31c149$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.628644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nicaragua25c148.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.491,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Netherlands71c140.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.741553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Nicaragua44c123$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.495442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Netherlands66c120$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Nicaragua30c113$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.017750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ee…26babacked Nicaragua10c106.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…c2b1backed Netherlands72c102.18$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Nicaragua30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3065651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Netherlands69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-56.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Netherlands71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293060%18 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Nicaragua33c98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3414549%71 W · 74 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Netherlands55c97.31$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8540846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Nicaragua19c91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.643929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Nicaragua20c89.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.441,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdd16…3d97backed Netherlands71c86$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.94366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Netherlands70c85.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.725354.7%29 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Netherlands59c81.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Nicaragua26c81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.219241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Nicaragua67c78.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.028247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Netherlands72c75.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2617155%94 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Netherlands51c74.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.333756.8%21 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Nicaragua21c74.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.531,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked Netherlands74c74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24fc…ea73backed Netherlands70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nicaragua20c65.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.884122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Nicaragua29c63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.535944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Netherlands62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.784,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6982…5831backed Nicaragua29c56.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.37475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Nicaragua30c54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3310353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38a…4832backed Nicaragua38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Netherlands65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ab…3ba7backed Netherlands70c42.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Nicaragua31c41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.712123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6dc…ab58backed Netherlands68c37.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.974540%18 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Nicaragua33c37.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.162025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Nicaragua28c37.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…4648backed Netherlands73c35.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.663458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a3f…13bbbacked Netherlands75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Netherlands54c29.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32f…082cbacked Nicaragua42c27.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.673551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed Netherlands50c24.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.451637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Netherlands57c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.469751.5%50 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf13…7c9abacked Netherlands55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Netherlands66c17.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9114442.4%61 W · 83 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c2c…3dc9backed Netherlands70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f72…40a4backed Netherlands72c14.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.