TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,572,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,715,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,572,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,018 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8764…604abacked Knicks55c227,272$124,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,272.187266.7%48 W · 24 L+14.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked 76ers45c150,000$67,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,50054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Knicks48c68,677$32,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,793.331,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Knicks56c65,000$36,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,671.2923257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Knicks47c55,074$25,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,134.9828742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Knicks54c51,783$28,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,652.381,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked 76ers45c50,000$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,50015349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed 76ers55c44,981$24,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,929.3660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Knicks46c40,000$18,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,452.9311547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked 76ers51c38,763$19,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,647.54,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Knicks62c37,903$23,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,463.1719653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks48c35,426$17,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,371.622,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Knicks55c33,366$18,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,914.8129055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Knicks56c30,469$17,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,406.491,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed 76ers56c30,318$16,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,977.8122453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Knicks55c30,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,499.991,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks48c27,646$13,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,488.522,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked 76ers0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked 76ers55c22,705$12,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,487.7347848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers51c22,375$11,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,315.739,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf4…51f7backed Knicks55c21,640$11,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,737.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Knicks56c21,119$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,319.0713842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed 76ers55c20,000$11,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,05023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0813…8e62backed 76ers0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed 76ers54c20,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,799.9818747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed 76ers47c17,573$8,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2463,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked 76ers54c17,040$9,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,226.7228554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked 76ers45c16,614$7,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,476.4728649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed 76ers55c15,860$8,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,72371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed 76ers45c15,600$7,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,02030845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10d0…a31bbacked Knicks45c15,000$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,249.994235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed 76ers54c15,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,099.981850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Knicks46c14,781$6,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,021.8451844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…ddf7backed Knicks45c14,600$6,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0303129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd915…1d54backed 76ers55c14,600$8,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,029.922965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed 76ers55c13,003$7,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,151.7592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 76ers49c12,999$6,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,363.071,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Knicks55c12,482$6,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,616.737557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 76ers2c12,389$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.741,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked 76ers1c12,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14419033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 76ers9c11,292$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.281,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks44c11,149$4,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,234.82,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked 76ers0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed 76ers51c10,782$5,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,539.052,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed 76ers4c10,536$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked 76ers45c10,100$4,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5453863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed 76ers56c10,000$5,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,594.1821951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Knicks56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4005156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Knicks45c10,000$4,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,546.5919751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 76ers43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.9659653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked 76ers45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.941,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked 76ers19c10,000$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.9895641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Knicks56c9,651$5,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,246.5225753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Knicks71c9,256$6,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.316459.4%38 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers34c9,156$3,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.542,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed 76ers44c9,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,96066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ed…4ed7backed Knicks45c8,500$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6751723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7f6c…b40cbacked 76ers56c8,472$4,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,744.321675%12 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+96.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed 76ers38c8,453$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,236.853,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed 76ers46c8,023$3,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,656.9629250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed 76ers45c8,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8b…77d4backed 76ers54c7,600$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,103.9811244.6%50 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Knicks45c7,599$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,179.4414945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed 76ers0c7,342$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.89348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Knicks75c7,232$5,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.992060%12 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked 76ers51c6,910$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.3481529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked 76ers54c6,823$3,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,704.4520048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c10…6869backed Knicks56c6,588$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a68…3b20backed Knicks45c6,505$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,577.752441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked 76ers6c6,500$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40337930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Knicks47c6,349$2,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,365.2139349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed 76ers55c6,311$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,473.631455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 76ers44c6,300$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7721,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed 76ers1c6,251$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.035213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Knicks47c6,200$2,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,263.422,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed 76ers15c6,161$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.051,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Knicks45c6,158$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.7618518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Knicks44c6,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks44c6,000$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers24c5,891$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.388,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed 76ers47c5,346$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.621827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4336…ec18backed 76ers56c5,270$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf32…5159backed 76ers52c5,113$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,653.23231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x938f…f13fbacked Knicks57c5,005$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.155349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed 76ers55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75046928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Knicks56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20025947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked 76ers4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019432%62 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed 76ers45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25021446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked 76ers45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd94d…5f73backed 76ers56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Knicks48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6006144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189c…fea3backed 76ers1c5,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked 76ers48c4,989$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.92,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634c…534fbacked Knicks53c4,620$2,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,171.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa73…5723backed 76ers47c4,610$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45f6…49f1backed 76ers47c4,610$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4736…13d8backed Knicks53c4,600$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99b…8020backed Knicks54c4,530$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e7…ed4cbacked 76ers46c4,525$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Knicks45c4,491$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.324259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.