TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Joel Embiid: Points O/U 28.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,625 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa717…8919backed No62c264$164 inWon+$100.3216361.3%100 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost-$1004341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1078…b0a2backed Yes40c250.67$100 inLost-$1005433.3%18 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No58c195.1$113 inWon+$82.251,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed Yes39c164.1$64 inLost-$6426069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No60c137.33$82 inWon+$54.931,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No60c100$60 inWon+$4090863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Yes53c60$32 inLost-$322138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid+52.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No62c59.99$37 inWon+$22.821672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xea4e…5ecbbacked Yes50c56$28 inLost-$281241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No45c50$23 inWon+$27.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe056…dd58backed Yes38c40$15 inLost-$15.22623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-45.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4546…a3f2backed Yes37c32.46$12 inLost-$1230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No61c25$15 inWon+$9.7595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No63c18$11 inWon+$6.6622774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.