TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,104 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6b0…ce9ebacked Yes21c6,680$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.56933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7352…e156backed Yes19c5,847$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.883818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes10c5,334$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.9412033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3005100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed Yes6c4,010$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.654226.2%11 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes20c2,372$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.799041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes1c2,150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes21c1,405$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.9319040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x616b…9c32backed Yes3c1,198$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c1,152$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.021502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes69c1,021$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes28c982.54$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.818323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No77c911.43$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.579850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c910.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.522674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes16c847.35$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6611855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd36c…6b38backed Yes59c843.11$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+598.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No61c836.18$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.074641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes27c815.56$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1527536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes21c773.28$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.153810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c706.12$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.551,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes37c684.49$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.267948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes27c615.7$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.641030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2958…311fbacked Yes7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+376.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes6c555.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes33c535.35$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.47238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91fc…714ebacked Yes27c523.2$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb66…a109backed Yes12c504.51$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes16c504.36$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.896328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No64c458.65$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.459157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed Yes31c456.66$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.42532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes41c426.85$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.682657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Yes41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6630…2f4ebacked Yes28c400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c393.59$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4673135.6%260 W · 471 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63e2…aa04backed Yes26c383.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3be…582bbacked Yes16c373.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb917…05d0backed Yes6c343.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No76c333.11$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.828041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes38c332.16$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.954755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a6…0b89backed Yes32c294.81$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes11c292.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.491175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No75c274.79$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c264.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.18454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No77c257.12$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.494052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca88…efb2backed No79c254.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.293100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No30c250$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ff…c98fbacked No75c245$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c241$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dbc…7032backed Yes5c237.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba7…ae61backed Yes35c200.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.071060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb89…9fdfbacked Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb8…8b21backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+395.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f2…5a03backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.851241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723933.3%13 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722650%13 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No73c196$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.929637.5%36 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No72c185.81$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.827852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c183.05$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9420148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes12c183$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9618311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes20c177.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.756123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc434…7003backed Yes29c170.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick31cpaid-71.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x829d…dffdbacked Yes28c162.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-77.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e5…aa2bbacked Yes46c162.03$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.97333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes37c160.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe497…84aabacked Yes32c158.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.922951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d8…841fbacked Yes37c156.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6484…8864backed No73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc68…bf42backed Yes26c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes34c149.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes22c136.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.242917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3e…5a69backed Yes15c135.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a47…6b59backed Yes24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x990a…81d8backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2994…fde2backed Yes40c125.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ea…b011backed Yes34c122.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.161010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ad…5306backed Yes26c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+462%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c117.09$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9625831.8%82 W · 176 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes36c110$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.81010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-82.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x315c…217bbacked Yes28c107.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98f6…e11abacked Yes32c107.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb09…9143backed Yes16c107$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0850%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes39c104.76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb4…b2c1backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7497…c565backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes19c99.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.33545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No75c97.34$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.938747.1%41 W · 46 L-10.8wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x69fd…cfddbacked No73c92.82$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.881050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes23c92.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6428828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3f…b50bbacked Yes33c90.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No66c90.14$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8317350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…9d7ebacked Yes22c88.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b16…a379backed Yes34c81.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc81…3cc7backed Yes25c81.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.84918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.