TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Capitals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Capitals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,678,315
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,688,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,678,315 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,899 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe20a…e469backed Hurricanes53c1,101,767$578,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523,215.4239047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Capitals47c1,006,294$477,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477,971.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Capitals49c181,556$88,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,069.261,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x869b…c625backed Hurricanes52c157,454$81,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,851.554665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Hurricanes51c149,744$77,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,710.3617749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Hurricanes53c131,062$69,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,599.0511955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Capitals49c102,239$50,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,097.351741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Capitals48c75,013$36,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,006.4538748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hurricanes52c75,000$38,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,083.1942552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Hurricanes51c70,211$35,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,403.3610349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Capitals48c62,059$29,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,788.277946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Capitals47c42,455$19,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,931.1488151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Capitals48c40,000$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,2008354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hurricanes51c35,459$18,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,374.8747951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Capitals47c32,017$15,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,167.9310554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Hurricanes52c30,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,4007850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Capitals48c29,200$14,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,01648549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Capitals47c23,836$11,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,202.72,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Capitals47c21,000$9,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,87010451.9%54 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Capitals48c19,574$9,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,482.8454047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Capitals48c18,888$9,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,066.2421850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hurricanes52c15,064$7,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,231.4719555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Capitals50c14,351$7,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,151.7218840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ed…3591backed Hurricanes52c13,750$7,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Hurricanes50c13,123$6,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,511.4427548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals48c12,920$6,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,141.481,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Capitals47c12,777$6,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,044.412,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Capitals49c12,386$6,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,06928152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Capitals47c12,000$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6401741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36de…e7c7backed Hurricanes50c10,948$5,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,473.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…9e5dbacked Capitals50c10,900$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,45020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Capitals49c10,141$4,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.2951045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Capitals48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9832946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Capitals47c9,507$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.5428652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Hurricanes54c9,295$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,294.991947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8c…0cbabacked Capitals50c8,700$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d8…20f0backed Hurricanes50c8,650$4,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,322.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals48c7,893$3,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,763.291,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Capitals70c7,200$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0401450%7 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Capitals47c6,673$3,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.3152050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Hurricanes52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,88014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hurricanes53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82030447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5e…8270backed Hurricanes52c5,711$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,741.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92a…c5eabacked Capitals48c5,400$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,59210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef8b…8493backed Hurricanes53c5,400$2,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Hurricanes50c5,320$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.832343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Capitals47c5,175$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,432.2524654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Capitals48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Capitals49c5,000$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,43016241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Hurricanes51c4,960$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.533056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Capitals48c4,771$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,290.2912245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hurricanes52c4,709$2,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.1689547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Capitals48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.9813333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Hurricanes52c3,967$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.9932744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Capitals49c3,934$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.5325555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Capitals49c3,915$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.3530551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad2…e215backed Capitals49c3,850$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c35…8f52backed Hurricanes51c3,842$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Hurricanes51c3,832$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.4420552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Capitals48c3,625$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.9419051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Capitals48c3,516$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.6824349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes49c3,411$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.591,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Hurricanes49c3,334$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.311,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Capitals49c3,294$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6141127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b6…ceb1backed Capitals49c3,241$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Capitals48c3,125$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Capitals49c3,107$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.4711151.4%57 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b7…74acbacked Capitals48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5551…5616backed Hurricanes53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4102100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Capitals49c2,828$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.7214848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Capitals48c2,710$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.6369550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Hurricanes50c2,633$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.7325449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Capitals47c2,567$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.491,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Capitals48c2,555$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.486649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Capitals47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17523751.5%122 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71bd…28c4backed Hurricanes53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc73d…7a3abacked Capitals48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6767…21edbacked Capitals49c2,470$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7fc…86e1backed Hurricanes52c2,432$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.191241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Capitals48c2,400$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15231851.9%165 W · 153 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Hurricanes51c2,300$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.211,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Hurricanes51c2,300$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1273060%18 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Capitals48c2,209$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.367546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c7…dabebacked Capitals49c2,157$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.831136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Capitals1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Capitals47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Hurricanes51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Capitals50c1,920$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.3997651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Capitals48c1,920$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.361,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Hurricanes54c1,820$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.3630946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Capitals46c1,684$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.8762951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Capitals48c1,679$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.9222852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Capitals48c1,640$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.223047.4%109 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Hurricanes51c1,633$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.1761959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8019…df3abacked Hurricanes51c1,600$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7841163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d16…75e7backed Capitals50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Capitals47c1,580$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.6435349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Capitals48c1,523$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.134042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4409…6273backed Capitals50c1,510$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc213…6affbacked Capitals48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.