NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e262964e8c9dfac8bfb1181e3a416fec76f2251364eb6e645f30533ea3b2bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed Over | 42c | 109,343$45,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,924.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 58c | 98,906$57,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,540.42 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 58c | 12,228$7,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,163.33 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 5,933$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.06 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 1,222$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.47 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 999.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 58c | 444$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 55c | 181.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Over | 43c | 120.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 39c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…a289backed Under | 58c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…02b3backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 59c | 17.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. CapitalsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Hurricanes won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.