Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9fb958672f6b16f8f7d2f0cb67cb83c06510d1eef32264d9d2fa6c87b394fe

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $206,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $152,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,893 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	16,392$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	2,861$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f00…d304backed Yes	0c	2,805$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9910…771dbacked Yes	0c	2,794$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf2…31ddbacked Yes	0c	2,685$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…5eb2backed Yes	0c	2,653$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3d2…c080backed Yes	0c	2,537$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	11c	1,227$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.1	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,129$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	920.01$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.16	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	5c	847.65$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.38	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	762.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes	8c	689.08$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.45	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e5…9751backed Yes	9c	500$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Yes	9c	466.11$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.81	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	5c	435.59$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed Yes	10c	352.17$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.46	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes	9c	300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes	8c	240.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2551…8244backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	184.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed Yes	11c	139$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79e9…91f5backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3af…f79cbacked Yes	16c	66.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event