Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4bca04da764ab5c63e1a43443e16596d241b4bf593e1162afc8dbe76f1e8b7a

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $188,318
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $155,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,318 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	106,683$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.68	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x029e…0159backed Yes	3c	5,013$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	4c	2,158$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.9	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	0c	2,130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,945$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.92	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,369$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	2c	1,250$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	1c	1,020$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	4c	947.76$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.85	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	3c	945.51$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	743.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	5c	714.24$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.91	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	3c	648.2$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.57	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	4c	624.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	545.95$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.58	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	539.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	473.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	4c	423.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x521d…72febacked Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes	4c	350$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes	4c	287$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f1…87bcbacked Yes	8c	244.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	78c	237.84$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.31	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes	22c	227.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed Yes	7c	175$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event