Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbac0aeeb8620e62d8fa78bc41870defd383451a8030e6c7de9298eae0f74048c

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $194,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,313 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	19,690$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	0c	3,558$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	2,710$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.93	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	2,000$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.04	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	1,585$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.68	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	3c	1,250$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	10c	1,244$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.83	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Yes	3c	982.55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+11%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	970.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	945.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.34	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	934.42$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.72	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	5c	845.22$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.91	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	4c	802.49$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.09	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	646.37$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	603.88$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	581.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	558.97$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	11c	548.79$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb465…f187backed Yes	9c	548.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	5c	528.05$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	5c	348.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes	15c	339.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	15c	329.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac9…7f8bbacked Yes	3c	304.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	275$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	7c	268.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes	6c	231$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	16cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	194.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	7c	180.93$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	175.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x462a…d36dbacked Yes	6c	157$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedd8…4b91backed Yes	15c	132.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+311.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5813…7279backed Yes	12c	125.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc004…5092backed Yes	8c	123.53$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a9…6da5backed Yes	13c	102.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	12c	101.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes	12c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	262	24%63 W · 199 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event