World Politics · resolved market
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?-fkEW
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee373f3a04584b6d428b829ae98c51c17b711ced550344358008593e91869c47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc20…84a5backed Yes | 16c | 556.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 3c | 505$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 14c | 501.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…c2d9backed No | 79c | 370.09$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 73c | 324$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed Yes | 20c | 267$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 27c | 234$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 73c | 183$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 11c | 162.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 12c | 159$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 27c | 151$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 14c | 148$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 15c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 13c | 127.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 27c | 122$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 108.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 41cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 19c | 67.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?-fkEWthis page
- Will Cătălin Drulă get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.