World Politics · resolved market
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8328c7ac643e8d329fc43d71796a1aa26ba74db61f90a83495641ebbb8cb79d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 13c | 578.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 5c | 572$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 11c | 477$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 9c | 466$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 33c | 372$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 67c | 359$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 29c | 342.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 79c | 323$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 65c | 278$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 17c | 260$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 7c | 260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 10c | 216.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 28c | 203.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 6c | 172.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 35c | 166$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 26c | 159.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 34c | 145.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 133.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 28c | 112$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 34c | 107$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 33c | 103$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 98.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…35f8backed Yes | 37c | 98.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…29fdbacked Yes | 15c | 98.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 84.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 27c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +98%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked No | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 32c | 49.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…06a5backed Yes | 55c | 35.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…861bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 35.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 59c | 34.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 66c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Cătălin Drulă get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?-fkEWNo won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.