World Politics · resolved market
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44dcfd813569f30bc8ecda61aaa47d94804c2e2d3614189aecc0a8dd0c164671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 9c | 381.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed Yes | 3c | 348$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 7c | 319.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 10c | 319$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 80c | 315$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 12c | 265$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked Yes | 7c | 264$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 7c | 249$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed Yes | 6c | 221$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 18c | 218$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…9784backed Yes | 9c | 214.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 16c | 197$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…47c7backed Yes | 12c | 167.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 7c | 163$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 20c | 158$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +288.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 13c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Cătălin Drulă get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?-fkEWNo won
- Will Cătălin Drulă get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.