TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 646 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51b1…7865backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf44d…60afbacked Yes74c7,779$5,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,054.371442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No36c7,234$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe195…6117backed No9c4,017$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c3,812$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.6145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf69a…1dbebacked Yes59c3,667$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe813…97f5backed No14c3,344$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No2c3,041$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.829435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4aa7…5458backed Yes65c2,625$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+170.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes65c2,122$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.2725731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed No16c2,098$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.16200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes60c1,931$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.134641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed No4c1,717$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.79531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed No1c1,454$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93170%0 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2288…5844backed No18c1,404$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2292…304ebacked No14c1,363$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No7c1,335$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9518311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No43c1,330$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.054360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed No9c1,295$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.454226.2%11 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…dfa4backed No44c1,145$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No45c1,048$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.981346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b54…3325backed No3c1,006$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed No19c932.84$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.19714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fba…8a7dbacked No11c922.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac95…df88backed Yes60c890.7$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.37977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+35%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c875.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.811,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No45c749$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.772236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No6c743.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.98712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No7c681.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.05521.9%1 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8920…bdb2backed No39c681.26$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No4c679.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No34c670$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.211145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ea…08a5backed No36c670$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked No2c668.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfebe…2984backed No12c666.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4dc…0fc3backed No6c638.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x924f…134bbacked No38c636.03$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No2c626.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0924315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91a1…57b9backed No37c610.95$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes61c602.51$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.522642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No6c600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No4c599.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No37c572.1$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.288122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b1…6a01backed No17c571.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No40c564.92$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.997636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05fc…f78ebacked No32c544$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7352…e156backed No13c523$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.693818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2651…1ab2backed No7c505.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No46c501$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.461827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed No15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes63c499.97$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.994450%22 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1092…ae3ebacked Yes69c493.96$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc4…6c14backed Yes63c493$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No6c487.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes50c487$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes67c482.18$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.163633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf769…aa46backed Yes63c478.91$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.911662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+55%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e4e…8093backed No43c467.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e23…5430backed No40c461.33$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No44c461$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.272254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e09…20fdbacked No6c442$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5b…d88dbacked Yes63c438.24$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes61c436$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.031457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c430.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.092792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-81.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.016839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1522…607ebacked No4c396.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes57c392$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.562040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…421dbacked No7c386.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a4a…3242backed No36c386.46$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes54c386$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.561560%9 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+123%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked Yes53c382$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.541154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…09a7backed No39c380$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No40c357$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.522123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes58c340$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.331136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd11f…2d2cbacked Yes59c336$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09cb…218ebacked No34c334.57$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No48c330$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No41c319.04$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.219850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked No38c317.16$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+72.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6735…f5b7backed No59c315.28$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.111127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb819…1f1cbacked No29c311.42$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No11c310.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4632228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No10c303.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3211855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe6f…7495backed No9c302.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+124.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes68c297.52$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed Yes62c296.37$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.622445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c5…765abacked Yes63c295.52$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked No40c290.34$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes61c286.86$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.147139.4%28 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes49c283$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.331241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe078…e707backed No6c280.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8f…d077backed Yes61c277.01$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.361233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked No42c277$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.342429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd704…cf56backed No32c276.96$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No47c270$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.92142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes52c269$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.122166.7%14 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+88.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes52c265$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked No41c254$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+72.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.