AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19eedd7f11c822335ceec87b5e22ff542018b17bbf41030c63f18086f3a2ff4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 40c | 1,305$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.33 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 9c | 1,211$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 916.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 19c | 703$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…a8a0backed Yes | 44c | 692.6$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed Yes | 19c | 515$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0372…4914backed Yes | 19c | 452.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 51c | 439.84$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.17 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed Yes | 19c | 337$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…df67backed Yes | 39c | 258.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…de90backed Yes | 21c | 236.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 208.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.21 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 22c | 184$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 78c | 159$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 157.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked No | 76c | 145$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 18c | 116$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…331dbacked Yes | 23c | 109.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…7e08backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…3435backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 62c | 77.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…6b80backed Yes | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 64c | 51.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…d083backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…6747backed Yes | 40c | 49.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 66c | 39.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 72c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…6250backed No | 76c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?this page
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will YouTube be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.