AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7109a81cb6e79020de89563063dc4f8305ae59162fd60a4eb167c09fe5a12290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 41c | 8,293$3,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,890.68 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 42c | 6,664$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.34 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 51c | 4,910$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.14 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 49c | 2,440$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.77 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b134backed No | 50c | 2,398$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Yes | 65c | 2,380$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…04e7backed No | 50c | 2,270$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…b291backed Yes | 50c | 2,270$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 59c | 1,993$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.53 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Yes | 50c | 1,948$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Yes | 64c | 1,560$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked No | 36c | 1,549$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 53c | 1,480$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 3c | 1,393$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 48c | 1,300$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.11 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 45c | 1,176$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.21 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…9506backed Yes | 78c | 965.12$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…928abacked Yes | 53c | 951.08$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0372…4914backed Yes | 48c | 864.79$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed No | 77c | 742.55$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…3435backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 61c | 584.61$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.41 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 61c | 520.29$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 19c | 445.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.04 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Yes | 50c | 444.84$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 47c | 371.85$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.8 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 59c | 359.48$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 53c | 302.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 301.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…6430backed Yes | 58c | 260.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 56c | 221.57$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…5bdabacked Yes | 54c | 209.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 46c | 197.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 31c | 197.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 185.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…0ae3backed Yes | 34c | 177.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 34c | 175.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 8c | 172.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399a…1482backed Yes | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…e85ebacked Yes | 41c | 155$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 74c | 148.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…9175backed No | 68c | 131.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff1…c85ebacked Yes | 12c | 125.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 120.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 115.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73fc…0494backed No | 45c | 111.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…6250backed Yes | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 102.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…1522backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…3f3bbacked Yes | 55c | 96.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…cd2dbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c27bbacked Yes | 27c | 95.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 55c | 90.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…b465backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…6b80backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 58c | 86.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514d…4200backed No | 62c | 80.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…3f56backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed No | 63c | 79.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7de…bdd1backed Yes | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 46c | 60.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…7fccbacked Yes | 57c | 53.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…6208backed No | 55c | 52.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 51c | 51.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…76e4backed No | 50c | 51.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…3f94backed No | 60c | 49.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa17…3aa2backed No | 59c | 48.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 47.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 26c | 47.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…0748backed Yes | 49c | 45.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…83d7backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b15…db20backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b77…18d0backed Yes | 67c | 44.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…0de5backed Yes | 50c | 44.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6939…9c88backed Yes | 62c | 43.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 39c | 42.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8c…7822backed Yes | 40c | 41.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…e83cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…5d59backed Yes | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…2a7bbacked No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 39.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 51c | 39.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…4619backed Yes | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…95d7backed No | 60c | 37.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…5c52backed No | 55c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…617dbacked Yes | 49c | 35.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
- Will YouTube be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.